Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()

Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to “nowcast” the mortality levels obser...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Buonanno, Paolo, Puca, Marcello
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529307/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579561
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006
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author Buonanno, Paolo
Puca, Marcello
author_facet Buonanno, Paolo
Puca, Marcello
author_sort Buonanno, Paolo
collection PubMed
description Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to “nowcast” the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperform forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially valid alternative source of information to deal with epidemic surveillance.
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spelling pubmed-85293072021-10-21 Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots() Buonanno, Paolo Puca, Marcello Health Policy Article Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to “nowcast” the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperform forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially valid alternative source of information to deal with epidemic surveillance. Elsevier B.V. 2021-04 2021-01-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8529307/ /pubmed/33579561 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Buonanno, Paolo
Puca, Marcello
Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title_full Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title_fullStr Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title_full_unstemmed Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title_short Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots()
title_sort using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: evidence from the italian covid-19 hot-spots()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8529307/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579561
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006
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