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New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic
Life expectancy at birth (e0) forecasts are used to estimate future pension costs. Previous French official forecasts have often overestimated e0. Recent forecasts published by demographers provide higher e0 estimates than official forecasts for France, Sweden, Japan and the USA, and do not consider...
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8530198/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34676461 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10522-021-09942-x |
| _version_ | 1784586624058785792 |
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| author | Le Bourg, Eric |
| author_facet | Le Bourg, Eric |
| author_sort | Le Bourg, Eric |
| collection | PubMed |
| description | Life expectancy at birth (e0) forecasts are used to estimate future pension costs. Previous French official forecasts have often overestimated e0. Recent forecasts published by demographers provide higher e0 estimates than official forecasts for France, Sweden, Japan and the USA, and do not consider that e0 could decrease, as in previous years because of flus, heatwaves, or other outbreaks. Too optimistic forecasts make that governments may overestimate future pension needs. |
| format | Online Article Text |
| id | pubmed-8530198 |
| institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer Netherlands |
| record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
| spelling | pubmed-85301982021-10-22 New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic Le Bourg, Eric Biogerontology Opinion Life expectancy at birth (e0) forecasts are used to estimate future pension costs. Previous French official forecasts have often overestimated e0. Recent forecasts published by demographers provide higher e0 estimates than official forecasts for France, Sweden, Japan and the USA, and do not consider that e0 could decrease, as in previous years because of flus, heatwaves, or other outbreaks. Too optimistic forecasts make that governments may overestimate future pension needs. Springer Netherlands 2021-10-21 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8530198/ /pubmed/34676461 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10522-021-09942-x Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
| spellingShingle | Opinion Le Bourg, Eric New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title | New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title_full | New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title_fullStr | New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title_full_unstemmed | New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title_short | New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| title_sort | new life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic |
| topic | Opinion |
| url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8530198/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34676461 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10522-021-09942-x |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lebourgeric newlifeexpectancyforecastsaretoooptimistic |