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The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as wel...

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Autores principales: Chen, Mengni, Atiqul Haq, Shah Md, Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor, Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth, Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8530311/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34673797
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196
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author Chen, Mengni
Atiqul Haq, Shah Md
Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor
Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth
Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar
author_facet Chen, Mengni
Atiqul Haq, Shah Md
Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor
Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth
Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar
author_sort Chen, Mengni
collection PubMed
description Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.
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spelling pubmed-85303112021-10-22 The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh Chen, Mengni Atiqul Haq, Shah Md Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar PLoS One Research Article Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors. Public Library of Science 2021-10-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8530311/ /pubmed/34673797 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196 Text en © 2021 Chen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Chen, Mengni
Atiqul Haq, Shah Md
Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor
Hussain, A. H. M. Belayeth
Ahmed, Mufti Nadimul Quamar
The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title_full The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title_fullStr The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title_short The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh
title_sort link between climate change, food security and fertility: the case of bangladesh
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8530311/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34673797
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258196
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