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Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape
The current COVID-19 pandemic has created unmeasurable damages to society at a global level, from the irreplaceable loss of life, to the massive economic losses. In addition, the disease threatens further biodiversity loss. Due to their shared physiology with humans, primates, and particularly great...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531408/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34675230 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-00061-8 |
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author | Colchero, Fernando Eckardt, Winnie Stoinski, Tara |
author_facet | Colchero, Fernando Eckardt, Winnie Stoinski, Tara |
author_sort | Colchero, Fernando |
collection | PubMed |
description | The current COVID-19 pandemic has created unmeasurable damages to society at a global level, from the irreplaceable loss of life, to the massive economic losses. In addition, the disease threatens further biodiversity loss. Due to their shared physiology with humans, primates, and particularly great apes, are susceptible to the disease. However, it is still uncertain how their populations would respond in case of infection. Here, we combine stochastic population and epidemiological models to simulate the range of potential effects of COVID-19 on the probability of extinction of mountain gorillas. We find that extinction is sharply driven by increases in the basic reproductive number and that the probability of extinction is greatly exacerbated if the immunity lasts less than 6 months. These results stress the need to limit exposure of the mountain gorilla population, the park personnel and visitors, as well as the potential of vaccination campaigns to extend the immunity duration. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8531408 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85314082021-10-25 Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape Colchero, Fernando Eckardt, Winnie Stoinski, Tara Sci Rep Article The current COVID-19 pandemic has created unmeasurable damages to society at a global level, from the irreplaceable loss of life, to the massive economic losses. In addition, the disease threatens further biodiversity loss. Due to their shared physiology with humans, primates, and particularly great apes, are susceptible to the disease. However, it is still uncertain how their populations would respond in case of infection. Here, we combine stochastic population and epidemiological models to simulate the range of potential effects of COVID-19 on the probability of extinction of mountain gorillas. We find that extinction is sharply driven by increases in the basic reproductive number and that the probability of extinction is greatly exacerbated if the immunity lasts less than 6 months. These results stress the need to limit exposure of the mountain gorilla population, the park personnel and visitors, as well as the potential of vaccination campaigns to extend the immunity duration. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-10-21 /pmc/articles/PMC8531408/ /pubmed/34675230 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-00061-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Colchero, Fernando Eckardt, Winnie Stoinski, Tara Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title | Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title_full | Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title_fullStr | Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title_short | Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape |
title_sort | exploring the potential effect of covid-19 on an endangered great ape |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531408/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34675230 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-00061-8 |
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