Distribution Change of Invasive American Bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) by Future Climate Threaten Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Hyla suweonensis) in South Korea

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), known as one of the most problematic amphibians in the world, was introduced to South Korea in the 1970s. Although it has spread very rapidly over the past 50 years, there is no focused strategy to manage the frogs. With the introduction of American Bullfrogs into nature, numerous native species (mostly amphibians) are rapidly decreasing due to predation, a transmission of infectious diseases, and crossbreeding. In particular, the critically endangered Suwon treefrog (Hyla suweonensis) is the most affected by Bullfrogs. In this study, we modeled what environment the American Bullfrog settled in and how it could spread in the future. It was confirmed that the distribution of the two species overlaps in many areas at present, and the distribution of the American Bullfrog may spread to the distribution area of the Suwon treefrog according to future climate change. Through the results of this study, we intend to suggest a management direction for the spread of invasive species and the protection of endangered species. Our result could contribute to many countries that have problems with the American Bullfrogs at present and in the future. ABSTRACT: The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) has been imported into South Korea in earnest for food since the 1970s and introduced into nature due to release and escape. Accordingly, the influx and spread of American Bullfrogs are expected to have a direct impact on native species, but few related studies have been conducted on this. We predicted changes in the potential distribution and future distribution based on climate change scenarios to analyze how those changes affect critically endangered Suwon treefrogs. Suwon treefrog sites (63.9%, 78/122) overlapped with the distribution of Bullfrogs. According to the prediction of the future distribution of Bullfrogs, the overlapping of American Bullfrogs and Suwon treefrog will remain similar to the current level in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. On the other hand, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the number of overlapping sites will increase to 72.1% (88/122) due to the spreading of the American Bullfrogs. The results show that climate change directly affects the distribution expansion of the American Bullfrogs but also indirectly can lead to an increased threat to Suwon treefrogs. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest why climate change should be actively addressed in terms of the spread of invasive species and the protection of endangered species.