Risk Assessment of Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes (Diptera: Culicidae) Invading China under Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate change has a significant impact on the quantity and distribution of vectors and may thus threaten the health of the population. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the near-current distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes in the world, as well as the distribution of potentially suitable areas in China under future climate scenarios. We also constructed a vector risk assessment system to assess the possibility of the two mosquito species invading China. Among the meteorological factors, the precipitation in September makes the greatest contribution to the distribution of areas suitable for the two mosquito species, which have a moderate risk of invading China. The relevant management departments should formulate scientific prevention and control measures for the two mosquitoes according to meteorological factors and the risk level of invasion. ABSTRACT: Background: Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes are morphologically similar and are considered to be effective vectors of malaria transmission in northeastern India. Environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of disease vectors driven by future climate change. Methods: In this study, we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potential global distribution of the two mosquito species in the near future and the trend of future distribution in China. Based on the contribution rate of environmental factors, we analyzed the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the two mosquito species. We also constructed a disease vector risk assessment index system to calculate the comprehensive risk value of the invasive species. Results: Precipitation has a significant effect on the distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes. The two mosquito species may spread in the suitable areas of China in the future. The results of the risk assessment index system showed that the two mosquito species belong to the moderate invasion risk level for China. Conclusions: China should improve the mosquito vector monitoring system, formulate scientific prevention and control strategies and strictly prevent foreign imports.