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Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of O...

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Autores principales: Dave, Dhaval, Friedson, Andrew, Matsuzawa, Kyutaro, McNichols, Drew, Redpath, Connor, Sabia, Joseph J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535106/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34720400
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4
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author Dave, Dhaval
Friedson, Andrew
Matsuzawa, Kyutaro
McNichols, Drew
Redpath, Connor
Sabia, Joseph J.
author_facet Dave, Dhaval
Friedson, Andrew
Matsuzawa, Kyutaro
McNichols, Drew
Redpath, Connor
Sabia, Joseph J.
author_sort Dave, Dhaval
collection PubMed
description The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma arena. In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was “more than likely” the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa County based on time series data. This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread. First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa County, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on COVID-19 cases from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally—including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance—may be important mechanisms. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4.
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spelling pubmed-85351062021-10-25 Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally Dave, Dhaval Friedson, Andrew Matsuzawa, Kyutaro McNichols, Drew Redpath, Connor Sabia, Joseph J. J Risk Uncertain Article The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma arena. In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was “more than likely” the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa County based on time series data. This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread. First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa County, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on COVID-19 cases from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally—including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance—may be important mechanisms. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4. Springer US 2021-10-22 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8535106/ /pubmed/34720400 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Dave, Dhaval
Friedson, Andrew
Matsuzawa, Kyutaro
McNichols, Drew
Redpath, Connor
Sabia, Joseph J.
Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title_full Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title_fullStr Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title_full_unstemmed Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title_short Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally
title_sort risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and covid-19: evidence from an indoor political rally
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535106/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34720400
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4
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