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Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China

Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average tempera...

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Autores principales: Chen, Can, Zhang, Xiaobao, Jiang, Daixi, Yan, Danying, Guan, Zhou, Zhou, Yuqing, Liu, Xiaoxiao, Huang, Chenyang, Ding, Cheng, Lan, Lei, Huang, Xihui, Li, Lanjuan, Yang, Shigui
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682590
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182010846
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author Chen, Can
Zhang, Xiaobao
Jiang, Daixi
Yan, Danying
Guan, Zhou
Zhou, Yuqing
Liu, Xiaoxiao
Huang, Chenyang
Ding, Cheng
Lan, Lei
Huang, Xihui
Li, Lanjuan
Yang, Shigui
author_facet Chen, Can
Zhang, Xiaobao
Jiang, Daixi
Yan, Danying
Guan, Zhou
Zhou, Yuqing
Liu, Xiaoxiao
Huang, Chenyang
Ding, Cheng
Lan, Lei
Huang, Xihui
Li, Lanjuan
Yang, Shigui
author_sort Chen, Can
collection PubMed
description Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza.
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spelling pubmed-85357402021-10-23 Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China Chen, Can Zhang, Xiaobao Jiang, Daixi Yan, Danying Guan, Zhou Zhou, Yuqing Liu, Xiaoxiao Huang, Chenyang Ding, Cheng Lan, Lei Huang, Xihui Li, Lanjuan Yang, Shigui Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Previous studies have reported that temperature is the main meteorological factor associated with influenza activity. This study used generalized additive models (GAMs) to explore the relationship between temperature and influenza activity in China. From the national perspective, the average temperature (AT) had an approximately negative linear correlation with the incidence of influenza, as well as a positive rate of influenza H1N1 virus (A/H1N1). Every degree that the monthly AT rose, the influenza cases decreased by 2.49% (95%CI: 1.24%–3.72%). The risk of influenza cases reached a peak at −5.35 °C with RRs of 2.14 (95%CI: 1.38–3.33) and the monthly AT in the range of −5.35 °C to 18.31 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Every degree that the weekly AT rose, the positive rate of A/H1N1 decreased by 5.28% (95%CI: 0.35%–9.96%). The risk of A/H1N1 reached a peak at −3.14 °C with RRs of 4.88 (95%CI: 1.01–23.75) and the weekly AT in the range of −3.14 °C to 17.25 °C had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. Our study found that AT is negatively associated with influenza activity, especially for A/H1N1. These findings indicate that temperature could be integrated into the current influenza surveillance system to develop early warning systems to better predict and prepare for the risks of influenza. MDPI 2021-10-15 /pmc/articles/PMC8535740/ /pubmed/34682590 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182010846 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Can
Zhang, Xiaobao
Jiang, Daixi
Yan, Danying
Guan, Zhou
Zhou, Yuqing
Liu, Xiaoxiao
Huang, Chenyang
Ding, Cheng
Lan, Lei
Huang, Xihui
Li, Lanjuan
Yang, Shigui
Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title_full Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title_fullStr Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title_full_unstemmed Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title_short Associations between Temperature and Influenza Activity: A National Time Series Study in China
title_sort associations between temperature and influenza activity: a national time series study in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8535740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682590
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182010846
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