Survival Outcome and Prognostic Factors of Corneal Transplantation: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital

PURPOSE: To evaluate long-term survival outcomes and determine the prognostic factors of corneal transplantation performed at a tertiary referral hospital in Thailand. DESIGN: A 15-year retrospective cohort study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One corneal graft per patient was selected; graft failure was defined as graft opacity due to recurrent disease or endothelial cell dysfunction. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed. Median time to failure was compared using the Log rank test. Prognostic factors were identified using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: We enrolled 704 transplanted grafts. Surgical indications were optical (88.5%), therapeutic (10.2%), and tectonic (1.3%). The most common diagnoses were corneal opacity (25.3%), bullous keratopathy (15.8%), and regraft (14.8%). The overall survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 87.5%, 72.0%, 59.2%, and 41.7%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified age, primary diagnosis, graft size, pre-existing glaucoma, prior lens status, prior intraocular surgery, indication for surgery, donor endothelial cell density, and previous graft rejection as prognostic factors for graft failure. Multivariate analysis revealed three prognostic factors: primary diagnosis of perforation/peripheral ulceration/Mooren’s ulcer (hazard ratio [HR]=28.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.32–129.16; P<0.001), active keratitis (HR=24.30; 95% CI, 5.88–100.43; P<0.001), regraft (HR=9.37; 95% CI, 2.27–38.66; P=0.002), and pseudophakic/aphakic bullous keratopathy (HR=7.97; 95% CI, 1.93–32.87; P=0.004); pre-existing glaucoma (HR=1.52; 95% CI, 1.13–2.04; P=0.006); and previous graft rejection (HR=1.95; 95% CI, 1.54–2.48; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Overall corneal graft survival rate was high in the first postoperative year and decreased after that. Primary diagnosis, pre-existing glaucoma, and previous graft rejection negatively influenced graft survival.