Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. In this study, based on the distribution data and environmental factor data of S. invicta, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the potential suitable area of S. invicta growth in the current climate is 81.37 × 10(4) km(2) in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The total suitable area of S. invicta growth is expected to increase in the future climate change scenario, and the suitable area is likely to spread to higher latitudes. ABSTRACT: The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 10(4) km(2) in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.