How to Count Bugs: A Method to Estimate the Most Probable Absolute Population Density and Its Statistical Bounds from a Single Trap Catch

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The importance of conservation and pest management programs cannot be overstated as climate change, loss of biodiversity, and biological invasions are on the rise. Such programs often rely on traps for population detection and monitoring, assigning management and conservation tactics, and evaluating treatment efficacies. In this paper, we propose a universal method for any insect trap system to estimate the most probable absolute population density and its statistical bounds from a single trap catch. This approach will help take insect detection and monitoring to a new, rigorously quantitative level. ABSTRACT: Knowledge of insect population density is crucial for establishing management and conservation tactics and evaluating treatment efficacies. Here, we propose a simple and universal method for estimating the most probable absolute population density and its statistical bounds. The method is based on a novel relationship between experimentally measurable characteristics of insect trap systems and the probability to catch an insect located a given distance away from the trap. The generality of the proposed relationship is tested using 10 distinct trapping datasets collected for insects from 5 different orders and using major trapping methods, i.e., chemical-baited traps and light. For all datasets, the relationship faithfully ([Formula: see text] describes the experiment. The proposed approach will take insect detection and monitoring to a new, rigorously quantitative level. It will improve conservation and management, while driv-ing future basic and applied research in population and chemical ecology.