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Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries

The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of th...

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Autores principales: Zhao, Zebin, Li, Xin, Liu, Feng, Jin, Rui, Ma, Chunfeng, Huang, Bo, Wu, Adan, Nie, Xiaowei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8544596/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682973
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292
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author Zhao, Zebin
Li, Xin
Liu, Feng
Jin, Rui
Ma, Chunfeng
Huang, Bo
Wu, Adan
Nie, Xiaowei
author_facet Zhao, Zebin
Li, Xin
Liu, Feng
Jin, Rui
Ma, Chunfeng
Huang, Bo
Wu, Adan
Nie, Xiaowei
author_sort Zhao, Zebin
collection PubMed
description The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis–Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.
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spelling pubmed-85445962021-10-26 Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries Zhao, Zebin Li, Xin Liu, Feng Jin, Rui Ma, Chunfeng Huang, Bo Wu, Adan Nie, Xiaowei Healthcare (Basel) Article The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis–Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity. MDPI 2021-09-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8544596/ /pubmed/34682973 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhao, Zebin
Li, Xin
Liu, Feng
Jin, Rui
Ma, Chunfeng
Huang, Bo
Wu, Adan
Nie, Xiaowei
Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title_full Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title_fullStr Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title_full_unstemmed Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title_short Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
title_sort stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing covid-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: a case study of south and southeast asian countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8544596/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682973
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292
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