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Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of th...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8544596/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682973 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292 |
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author | Zhao, Zebin Li, Xin Liu, Feng Jin, Rui Ma, Chunfeng Huang, Bo Wu, Adan Nie, Xiaowei |
author_facet | Zhao, Zebin Li, Xin Liu, Feng Jin, Rui Ma, Chunfeng Huang, Bo Wu, Adan Nie, Xiaowei |
author_sort | Zhao, Zebin |
collection | PubMed |
description | The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis–Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8544596 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85445962021-10-26 Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries Zhao, Zebin Li, Xin Liu, Feng Jin, Rui Ma, Chunfeng Huang, Bo Wu, Adan Nie, Xiaowei Healthcare (Basel) Article The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis–Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5–20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity. MDPI 2021-09-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8544596/ /pubmed/34682973 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Zhao, Zebin Li, Xin Liu, Feng Jin, Rui Ma, Chunfeng Huang, Bo Wu, Adan Nie, Xiaowei Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title | Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title_full | Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title_fullStr | Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title_full_unstemmed | Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title_short | Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries |
title_sort | stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for curbing covid-19 transmission in the course of vaccination: a case study of south and southeast asian countries |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8544596/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34682973 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9101292 |
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