The effect of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence in 314 Latin American cities: a longitudinal ecological study with mobile phone location data

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of changes in mobility at the subcity level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence, which is particularly relevant in Latin America, where substantial barriers prevent COVID-19 vaccine access and non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to mitigation efforts. We aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level across a large number of Latin American cities. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and features of urban and social environments to analyse population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level among cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico, from March 2 to Aug 29, 2020. Spatially aggregated mobile phone data were provided by the UN Development Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata; confirmed COVID-19 cases were from national government reports and population and socioeconomic factors were from the latest national census in each country. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression for a time-series analysis, to examine longitudinal associations between weekly mobility changes from baseline (prepandemic week of March 2–9, 2020) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence (lagged by 1–6 weeks) at the subcity level, adjusting for urban environmental and socioeconomic factors (time-invariant educational attainment, residential overcrowding, population density [all at the subcity level], and country). FINDINGS: We included 1031 subcity areas, representing 314 Latin American cities, in Argentina (107 subcity areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20), and Mexico (406). In the main adjusted model, we observed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2·35 (95% CI 2·12–2·60) for COVID-19 incidence per log unit increase in the mobility ratio (vs baseline) during the previous week. Thus, 10% lower weekly mobility was associated with 8·6% (95% CI 7·6–9·6) lower incidence of COVID-19 in the following week. This association gradually weakened as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from null at a 6-week lag. INTERPRETATION: Reduced population movement within a subcity area is associated with a subsequent decrease in COVID-19 incidence among residents of that subcity area. Policies that reduce population mobility at the subcity level might be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategy, although they should be combined with strategies that mitigate any adverse social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.