The Value of Anti-Müllerian Hormone in the Prediction of Spontaneous Pregnancy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level is a predictor of clinical pregnancy in women trying to achieve a natural conception. METHODS: The PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for articles published until August 2020. Studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included in the meta-analysis; no language limitations were imposed. Quality was appraised using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 checklist. Heterogeneity due to the threshold effect was identified; thus, we plotted a summary receiver operating characteristic curve and calculated its area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Cochran’s Q index to assess whether AMH level is a predictor of spontaneous pregnancy. Publication bias and sensitivity were also assessed. RESULTS: Eleven studies (4,388 women) were ultimately included in this meta-analysis. The AUC and Cochran’s Q indices were 0.5932 and 0.5702, respectively. For women younger than 35 years, the AUC was 0.6355 and the Q index was 0.6025. For those older than 35 years, the AUC was 0.5536 and the Q index was 0.5403. Subgroup analyses by study type and population characteristics showed results similar to the overall outcome. No publication bias was identified, and the sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the final result. CONCLUSIONS: Serum AMH levels have poor predictive value for natural pregnancy. The predictive value of AMH was poor in the younger and older subgroups. Our findings suggest that low serum AMH levels are not associated with reduced fertility. INTRODUCTION: This study investigated the predictive value of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level for natural pregnancy. Other than age, few factors can predict the chances of natural fertility. AMH is an established biomarker of ovarian reserve that is widely used to predict oocyte yield in cases of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and menopause. In clinical practice, the applications of AMH are increasing. However, its predictive value for natural conception remains controversial. In this study, since AMH is closely related with ovarian reserve, we evaluated whether it has predictive value for natural pregnancy. Our findings will fine-tune the clinical application of AMH in pre-pregnancy counseling. The topic should be of wide interest to investigators in the reproductive endocrinology and gynecology fields. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020216265, Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020216265.