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Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models

Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effect...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Coulson, Tim, Potter, Tomos, Felmy, Anja
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8549625/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34745339
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272
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author Coulson, Tim
Potter, Tomos
Felmy, Anja
author_facet Coulson, Tim
Potter, Tomos
Felmy, Anja
author_sort Coulson, Tim
collection PubMed
description Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi‐generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted.
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spelling pubmed-85496252021-11-04 Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models Coulson, Tim Potter, Tomos Felmy, Anja Evol Appl Special Issue Articles Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi‐generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8549625/ /pubmed/34745339 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Special Issue Articles
Coulson, Tim
Potter, Tomos
Felmy, Anja
Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title_full Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title_fullStr Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title_full_unstemmed Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title_short Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
title_sort predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit integral projection models
topic Special Issue Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8549625/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34745339
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272
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