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Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models
Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effect...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8549625/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34745339 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272 |
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author | Coulson, Tim Potter, Tomos Felmy, Anja |
author_facet | Coulson, Tim Potter, Tomos Felmy, Anja |
author_sort | Coulson, Tim |
collection | PubMed |
description | Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi‐generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8549625 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85496252021-11-04 Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models Coulson, Tim Potter, Tomos Felmy, Anja Evol Appl Special Issue Articles Human impacts on the natural world often generate environmental trends that can have detrimental effects on distributions of phenotypic traits. We do not have a good understanding of how deteriorating environments might impact evolutionary trajectories across multiple generations, even though effects of environmental trends are often significant in the statistical quantitative genetic analyses of phenotypic trait data that are used to estimate additive genetic (co)variances. These environmental trends capture reaction norms, where the same (average) genotype expresses different phenotypic trait values in different environments. Not incorporated into the predictive models typically parameterised from statistical analyses to predict evolution, such as the breeder's equation. We describe how these environmental effects can be incorporated into multi‐generational, evolutionarily explicit, structured population models before exploring how these effects can influence evolutionary dynamics. The paper is primarily a description of the modelling approach, but we also show how incorporation into models of the types of environmental trends that human activity has generated can have considerable impacts on the evolutionary dynamics that are predicted. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8549625/ /pubmed/34745339 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Special Issue Articles Coulson, Tim Potter, Tomos Felmy, Anja Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title | Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title_full | Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title_fullStr | Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title_full_unstemmed | Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title_short | Predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit Integral Projection Models |
title_sort | predicting evolution over multiple generations in deteriorating environments using evolutionarily explicit integral projection models |
topic | Special Issue Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8549625/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34745339 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.13272 |
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