Diagnostic and prognostic nomograms for bone metastasis in small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVE: Patients with bone metastasis (BM) of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) have a poor prognosis. We aimed to identify predictors and prognostic factors in patients with BM of SCLC and construct nomograms to predict BM. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 18,187 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database reported between 2010 and 2016. Differences in overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were evaluated after propensity score matching. Independent predictors for BM and prognostic factors for patients with BM of SCLC were determined using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Two nomograms were constructed and evaluated using C-statistics. RESULTS: BM was observed in 4014 (22.07%) patients. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed significant differences between BM and non-BM groups. The median OS for patients with and without BM was 6 and 7 months, respectively. The median CSS for patients with and without BM was 9 and 13 months, respectively. Age, sex, tumor size, N stage, chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and liver/brain/lung metastases were related to BM and independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Diagnostic and prognostic nomograms were generated. CONCLUSION: Our nomograms predicted the incidence of BM and the 5-month survival rate of patients with SCLC and BM.