Value of age and alarm features for predicting upper gastrointestinal malignancy in patients with dyspepsia: an endoscopic database review of 4664 patients in Thailand

OBJECTIVE: Age and alarm features are commonly used as indicators for endoscopy in dyspeptic patients; however, the age cut-off and the predictive value of these parameters for identifying upper gastrointestinal (UGI) malignancies are uncertain. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Data were extracted from the Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Centre of Siriraj Hospital, Thailand, during 2005–2011. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients underwent a first-time upper endoscopy for dyspepsia. Patients with previous surgery, suspected UGI malignancy by imaging, or indefinite biopsy results on prior examination were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Alarm features included dysphagia, unintentional weight loss, GI bleeding/anaemia, and persistent vomiting. The diagnostic performance of each alarm feature and different age cut-off values were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 4664 patients (mean age: 52.0±14.4 years, 66% female) were included. Alarm symptoms were presented in 21.6%. The prevalence of active Helicobacter pylori infection was 26.3%. Fifty-eight (1.2%) patients had UGI malignancy. The prevalence of malignancy significantly increased with increasing age (0.6% in patients aged <50 years, and 1.8% in patients aged >60 years (p<0.001)). Cancer was found in two patients aged <50 years who did not have alarm features. Patients with alarm features had a higher prevalence of malignancy (OR 22.3, 95% CI 10.5 to 47.4; p<0.001) than those without. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of alarm features for UGI malignancy were 87.0%, 79.1%, 4.7% and 99.8%, respectively. Among all age groups, persistent vomiting had a positive likelihood ratio (PLR) >10, while dysphagia and GI bleeding/anaemia had a PLR >10 in patients <50 years old. CONCLUSION: Despite the overall limited value of age and alarm features, persistent vomiting, dysphagia, and GI bleeding/anaemia are strong predictors for malignancy in patients aged <50 years. Without these symptoms, cancer prevalence is negligible; thus, they are worthy guidance for endoscopic evaluation in this age group.