COVID-19 in patients with cancer: can baseline radiologic severity and early evolution predict clinical outcomes?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the degree of parenchymal involvement on chest radiograph (CXR) at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis and its early radiologic evolution can predict adverse events including hospitalization, intubation, and death in patients with cancer. METHODS: Retrospective study of 627 COVID-19-positive patients between March and April 2020, of which 248 had baseline CXR within 72 h of diagnosis and 64 patients had follow-up wihtin72 h. CXRs were classified as abnormal (i.e., radiologic findings suggestive of COVID-19 infection were noted), normal, or indeterminate. Baseline and follow-up severity scores were calculated based on lung regions in abnormal CXRs. Statistical analysis was performed to determine associations between abnormal CXR or severity score with adverse events. RESULTS: Of 248 patients (median age = 65) with a baseline CXR, 172/248 (69%) had an abnormal baseline study, which was associated with hospitalization (p < 0.001), intubation (p = 0.001), and death (p = 0.005). For patients with solid neoplasms, when adjusted for stage, it was associated with hospitalization (p = 0.0002), intubation (p = 0.019), and death (p = 0.03). The median baseline severity score was 3 (range = 1–10); the greater the score, the higher the likelihood of adverse outcome (p < 0.003 for all). A baseline severity score > 9 predicted > 50% probability of intubation and a score of ≥ 10 predicted > 50% of probability of death. The baseline severity score was not correlated with cancer-related treatment. Early radiologic progression was not correlated with hospitalization, intubation, or death. CONCLUSION: The degree of parenchymal involvement on CXR within 72 h of COVID-19 diagnosis is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with cancer. KEY POINTS: • In patients with cancer, the presence and severity of radiologic manifestation of COVID-19 on chest radiographs within 72 h of COVID-19 diagnosis are associated with hospitalization, intubation, and death. • Early radiologic progression on chest radiographs is not correlated with adverse outcomes.