Diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, smoking and COVID-19-related mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of observational studies to investigate the association between diabetes, hypertension, body mass index (BMI) or smoking with the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 and to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to these conditions. METHODS: Relevant observational studies were identified by searches in the PubMed, Cochrane library and Embase databases through 14 November 2020. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks (SRRs) and 95% CIs. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Cochrane methods and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework. RESULTS: A total of 186 studies representing 210 447 deaths among 1 304 587 patients with COVID-19 were included in this analysis. The SRR for death in patients with COVID-19 was 1.54 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.64, I(2)=92%, n=145, low certainty) for diabetes and 1.42 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.54, I(2)=90%, n=127, low certainty) for hypertension compared with patients without each of these comorbidities. Regarding obesity, the SSR was 1.45 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.61, I(2)=91%, n=54, high certainty) for patients with BMI ≥30 kg/m(2) compared with those with BMI <30 kg/m(2) and 1.12 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.17, I(2)=68%, n=25) per 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI. There was evidence of a J-shaped non-linear dose–response relationship between BMI and mortality from COVID-19, with the nadir of the curve at a BMI of around 22–24, and a 1.5–2-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality with extreme obesity (BMI of 40–45). The SRR was 1.28 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.40, I(2)=74%, n=28, low certainty) for ever, 1.29 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.62, I(2)=84%, n=19) for current and 1.25 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.42, I(2)=75%, n=14) for former smokers compared with never smokers. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death was increased by 14%, 11%, 12% and 7% for diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking, respectively. The proportion of deaths attributable to diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking was 8%, 7%, 11% and 2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking were associated with higher COVID-19 mortality, contributing to nearly 30% of COVID-19 deaths. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020218115.