Dynamic survival analysis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs): a 10-year follow-up based on conditional survival

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is generally evaluated at the time of diagnosis but does not reflect the survival dynamics of patients in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to evaluate the conditional survival (CS) of Chinese patients with GISTs after radical resection. METHODS: This retrospective study included 451 patients who underwent radical surgery for GISTs. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS). The 3-year conditional DFS (CDFS(3)) of patients who survived for x years was expressed as CDFS(3=)DFS((x + 3))/DFS((x)). RESULTS: The traditional 3-year DFS rate decreased gradually from 94.0% at 3 years to 77.3% at 7 years, while the CDFS(3) rate increased from 94.0 to 95.2% over the survival time of the patients. In addition, classic clinicopathological prognostic factors had different effects on CDFS(3,) with changes observed in survival time, but these effects were only slight or moderate (|d|<0.5). Although multivariate analysis showed that age, sex, mitotic index and tumor rupture were independent risk factors for DFS at baseline, all adverse prognostic factors, except for the mitotic index, lost their predictive significance at 5 years after operation. When the Modified NIH criteria were included, the risk staging was found to be an independent risk factor for recurrence or death. Time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that the modified NIH criteria independently affected the recurrence or death of GIST patients within 2 years after operation. CONCLUSION: CS provides detailed dynamic survival information about Chinese patients with primary resected GISTs. The mitotic index is of great clinical significance for the monitoring and follow-up of patient populations with a high risk of tumor recurrence or death until 5 years after surgery. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08828-y.