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Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based...

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Autores principales: Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa, Spence, Kelsey L., Ogden, Nicholas H., Fazil, Aamir, Turgeon, Patricia, Otten, Ainsley, Waddell, Lisa A., Ng, Victoria
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8562391/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34737875
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210834
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author Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
Spence, Kelsey L.
Ogden, Nicholas H.
Fazil, Aamir
Turgeon, Patricia
Otten, Ainsley
Waddell, Lisa A.
Ng, Victoria
author_facet Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
Spence, Kelsey L.
Ogden, Nicholas H.
Fazil, Aamir
Turgeon, Patricia
Otten, Ainsley
Waddell, Lisa A.
Ng, Victoria
author_sort Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
collection PubMed
description Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.
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spelling pubmed-85623912021-11-03 Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa Spence, Kelsey L. Ogden, Nicholas H. Fazil, Aamir Turgeon, Patricia Otten, Ainsley Waddell, Lisa A. Ng, Victoria R Soc Open Sci Mathematics Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions. The Royal Society 2021-11-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8562391/ /pubmed/34737875 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210834 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Mathematics
Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
Spence, Kelsey L.
Ogden, Nicholas H.
Fazil, Aamir
Turgeon, Patricia
Otten, Ainsley
Waddell, Lisa A.
Ng, Victoria
Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title_full Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title_fullStr Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title_short Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
title_sort modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on sars-cov-2 transmission in canada
topic Mathematics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8562391/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34737875
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210834
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