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The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes
Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1–4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our ide...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8562545/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34729564 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403 |
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author | Taylor, Charles A Boulos, Christopher Memoli, Matthew J. |
author_facet | Taylor, Charles A Boulos, Christopher Memoli, Matthew J. |
author_sort | Taylor, Charles A |
collection | PubMed |
description | Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1–4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our identification strategy isolates variation in COVID-19 rates across people born before and after 1968. In places with high 1968 influenza incidence, older cohorts experience lower COVID-19 death rates relative to younger ones. The relationship holds using county and patient-level data, as well as in hospital and nursing home settings. Results do not appear to be driven by systemic or policy-related factors, instead suggesting an individual-level response to prior influenza pandemic exposure. The findings merit investigation into potential biological and immunological mechanisms that account for these differences—and their implications for future pandemic preparedness. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8562545 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85625452022-12-15 The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes Taylor, Charles A Boulos, Christopher Memoli, Matthew J. medRxiv Article Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1–4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our identification strategy isolates variation in COVID-19 rates across people born before and after 1968. In places with high 1968 influenza incidence, older cohorts experience lower COVID-19 death rates relative to younger ones. The relationship holds using county and patient-level data, as well as in hospital and nursing home settings. Results do not appear to be driven by systemic or policy-related factors, instead suggesting an individual-level response to prior influenza pandemic exposure. The findings merit investigation into potential biological and immunological mechanisms that account for these differences—and their implications for future pandemic preparedness. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2022-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8562545/ /pubmed/34729564 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use. |
spellingShingle | Article Taylor, Charles A Boulos, Christopher Memoli, Matthew J. The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title | The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title_full | The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title_fullStr | The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title_full_unstemmed | The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title_short | The 1968 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19 Outcomes |
title_sort | 1968 influenza pandemic and covid-19 outcomes |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8562545/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34729564 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403 |
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