Cargando…
Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus
BACKGROUND: Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, espe...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Baishideng Publishing Group Inc
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8567530/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34786384 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v9.i30.9011 |
_version_ | 1784594254426800128 |
---|---|
author | Zhang, Dong-Yun Huang, Gai-Rong Ku, Jian-Wei Zhao, Xue-Ke Song, Xin Xu, Rui-Hua Han, Wen-Li Zhou, Fu-You Wang, Ran Wei, Meng-Xia Wang, Li-Dong |
author_facet | Zhang, Dong-Yun Huang, Gai-Rong Ku, Jian-Wei Zhao, Xue-Ke Song, Xin Xu, Rui-Hua Han, Wen-Li Zhou, Fu-You Wang, Ran Wei, Meng-Xia Wang, Li-Dong |
author_sort | Zhang, Dong-Yun |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients. AIM: To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China. METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model. RESULTS: The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7(th) tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7(th) TNM staging . CONCLUSION: Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8567530 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Baishideng Publishing Group Inc |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85675302021-11-15 Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus Zhang, Dong-Yun Huang, Gai-Rong Ku, Jian-Wei Zhao, Xue-Ke Song, Xin Xu, Rui-Hua Han, Wen-Li Zhou, Fu-You Wang, Ran Wei, Meng-Xia Wang, Li-Dong World J Clin Cases Retrospective Study BACKGROUND: Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients. AIM: To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China. METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model. RESULTS: The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7(th) tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7(th) TNM staging . CONCLUSION: Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions. Baishideng Publishing Group Inc 2021-10-26 2021-10-26 /pmc/articles/PMC8567530/ /pubmed/34786384 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v9.i30.9011 Text en ©The Author(s) 2021. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. |
spellingShingle | Retrospective Study Zhang, Dong-Yun Huang, Gai-Rong Ku, Jian-Wei Zhao, Xue-Ke Song, Xin Xu, Rui-Hua Han, Wen-Li Zhou, Fu-You Wang, Ran Wei, Meng-Xia Wang, Li-Dong Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title_full | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title_short | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
title_sort | development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus |
topic | Retrospective Study |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8567530/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34786384 http://dx.doi.org/10.12998/wjcc.v9.i30.9011 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangdongyun developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT huanggairong developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT kujianwei developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT zhaoxueke developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT songxin developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT xuruihua developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT hanwenli developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT zhoufuyou developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT wangran developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT weimengxia developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus AT wanglidong developmentandvalidationofaprognosticnomogrammodelforchinesepatientswithprimarysmallcellcarcinomaoftheesophagus |