Cargando…

Transition prediction in the Ising-model

Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Füllsack, Manfred, Reisinger, Daniel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8568180/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34735514
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259177
_version_ 1784594381341196288
author Füllsack, Manfred
Reisinger, Daniel
author_facet Füllsack, Manfred
Reisinger, Daniel
author_sort Füllsack, Manfred
collection PubMed
description Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system’s micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8568180
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-85681802021-11-05 Transition prediction in the Ising-model Füllsack, Manfred Reisinger, Daniel PLoS One Research Article Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system’s state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system’s micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems. Public Library of Science 2021-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8568180/ /pubmed/34735514 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259177 Text en © 2021 Füllsack, Reisinger https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Füllsack, Manfred
Reisinger, Daniel
Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title_full Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title_fullStr Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title_full_unstemmed Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title_short Transition prediction in the Ising-model
title_sort transition prediction in the ising-model
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8568180/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34735514
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259177
work_keys_str_mv AT fullsackmanfred transitionpredictionintheisingmodel
AT reisingerdaniel transitionpredictionintheisingmodel