Prediction of a 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Turkish population: A cross-sectional study

According to the International Diabetes Federation, Turkey will be among the top 10 countries in the world with the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) by 2045, with a speculated number of cases of 10.4 million. This study aimed to predict the 10-year risk of type 2 DM in a Turkish population, assess potential factors of the 10-year risk of DM, and assess the outcomes of Turkey's 2015 to 2020 program for DM. Individuals aged 20–64 years were categorized and stratified according to age (in ranges of 5 years), sex, and populations of family medicine centers to reflect the whole population. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, sociodemographic characteristics, body fat, muscle, bone ratio, blood pressure, and waist-to-height ratio were evaluated. We found that 9.5% (n = 71) of the population aged 20 to 64 years will have DM within the next 10 years. Low levels of education (odds ratio [OR]: 2.054; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.011–4.174), smoking cessation (OR: 2.636; 95% CI: 1.260–5.513), a waist-to-height ratio >0.5 (OR: 6.885; 95% CI: 2.301–20.602), body fat percentage (OR: 1.187; 95% CI: 1.130–1.247), high systolic blood pressure (OR: 1.025; 95% CI: 1.009–1.041), and alcohol consumption (beta-estimation: −0.690; OR: 0.501; 95% CI: 0.275–0.914) affect the 10-year risk of type 2 DM. Individuals at risk for DM can be easily identified using risk assessment tools in primary care; however, there is no active screening program in the healthcare system, and only proposals exist. In addition to screening, preventive measures should focus on raising awareness of DM, reducing body fat percentage and systolic blood pressure, and decreasing the waist-to-height ratio to <0.5.