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Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina
Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to proje...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8568897/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34737392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7 |
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author | Johnston, Jeremy Cassalho, Felicio Miesse, Tyler Ferreira, Celso M. |
author_facet | Johnston, Jeremy Cassalho, Felicio Miesse, Tyler Ferreira, Celso M. |
author_sort | Johnston, Jeremy |
collection | PubMed |
description | Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8568897 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85688972021-11-05 Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina Johnston, Jeremy Cassalho, Felicio Miesse, Tyler Ferreira, Celso M. Sci Rep Article Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8568897/ /pubmed/34737392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Johnston, Jeremy Cassalho, Felicio Miesse, Tyler Ferreira, Celso M. Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title | Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title_full | Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title_fullStr | Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title_full_unstemmed | Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title_short | Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina |
title_sort | projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in coastal north carolina |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8568897/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34737392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7 |
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