Association between antibiotics use and diabetes incidence in a nationally representative retrospective cohort among Koreans

Numerous studies have reported that antibiotics could lead to diabetes, even after adjusting for confounding variables. This study aimed to determine the causal relationship between antibiotics use and diabetes in a nationally representative cohort. This retrospective cohort study included adults aged 40 years or older who were enrolled in the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort. Antibiotic exposure was assessed from 2002 to 2005 and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus was determined based on diagnostic codes and history of antidiabetic medication use from 2006 to 2015. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between antibiotic use and diabetes incidence. The mean age of the 201,459 study subjects was 53.2 years. People who used antibiotics for 90 or more days had a higher risk of diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07–1.26) compared to non-users. Those who used five or more classes of antibiotics had a higher risk of diabetes than those who used one antibiotic class (aHR 1.14; 95% CI 1.06–1.23). The clear dose-dependent association between antibiotics and diabetes incidence supports the judicious use of antibiotics in the future.