Do patients or their physicians more accurately assess long-term risk associated with hypertension? A population-based study

Objective: To compare the assessments of 10-year probability by patients and their physicians of cardiovascular complications of hypertension with actual outcomes. Design: Patients with uncomplicated hypertension treated with at least one antihypertensive drug at inclusion were followed for 10 years through mandatory national health registers. Setting: 55 primary health care centres, 11 hospital outpatient clinics in Sweden Patients: 848 patient, 212 physicians. Main outcome measures: Patients and physicians estimated the probability of hypertension-related complications with treatment (death, heart failure, acute myocardial infarction/AMI, and stroke) for each patient in 848 pairs. Estimates were compared with the clinical outcomes 10 years later using data from the Mortality Register and the National Patient Register. Results: Patients were significantly better (p < 0.001) than their physicians in estimating the average probability of heart failure compared with actual outcome data (14% vs. 24%, outcome 15%), AMI (16% vs. 26%, outcome 8%), and stroke (15% vs. 25%, outcome 11%). Patients were significantly worse (p < 0.001) at estimating the average probability of death (10% vs. 18%, actual outcome 20%). Neither the patients nor the physicians were able to distinguish reliably between low-risk and high-risk patients after adjustment for age and sex. Conclusions: KEY POINTS: • Shared decision making relies on a common understanding of risks and benefits. Tools for risk assessment of hypertension have been introduced in the last two decades. • Without tools for risk assessment, both patients and physicians had difficulties in estimating the individual patient’s risk of cardiovascular morbidity. • Patients were better than physicians in estimating actual average cardiovascular morbidity due to hypertension during a follow-up of 10 years. • The results support the use of evidence-based tools in consultations for assessing the risk of cardiovascular complications associated with hypertension.