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Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe

How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. Understanding agricultural ecosystem responses requires assessing the relative shift in climatic constraints on crop production at regional scales such as the temper...

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Autores principales: Bożek, Kamila S., Żuk-Gołaszewska, Krystyna, Bochenek, Anna, Gołaszewski, Janusz, Kalaji, Hazem M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8571285/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34741106
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01273-8
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author Bożek, Kamila S.
Żuk-Gołaszewska, Krystyna
Bochenek, Anna
Gołaszewski, Janusz
Kalaji, Hazem M.
author_facet Bożek, Kamila S.
Żuk-Gołaszewska, Krystyna
Bochenek, Anna
Gołaszewski, Janusz
Kalaji, Hazem M.
author_sort Bożek, Kamila S.
collection PubMed
description How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. Understanding agricultural ecosystem responses requires assessing the relative shift in climatic constraints on crop production at regional scales such as the temperate zone. In this work we propose an approach to modeling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf. under the climatic conditions of north-eastern Poland. The model implements 13 non-measurable parameters, including climate conditions, agronomic factors, physiological processes, biophysical parameters, yield components and biological yield (latent variables), which are described by 33 measurable predictors as well as grain and straw yield (manifest variables). The agronomic factors latent variable was correlated with nitrogen fertilization and sowing density, and biological yield was correlated with grain yield and straw yield. An analysis of the model parameters revealed that a one unit increase in agronomic factors increased biological yield by 0.575. In turn, biological yield was most effectively determined by climate conditions (score of 60–62) and biophysical parameters (score of 60–67) in the 2nd node detectable stage and at the end of heading. The modeled configuration of latent and manifest variables was responsible for less than 70% of potential biological yield, which indicates that the growth and development of durum wheat in north-eastern Europe can be further optimized to achieve high and stable yields. The proposed model accounts for local climate conditions and physiological processes in plants, and it can be implemented to optimize agronomic practices in the cultivation of durum wheat and, consequently, to expand the area under T. durum to regions with a temperate climate.
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spelling pubmed-85712852021-11-09 Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe Bożek, Kamila S. Żuk-Gołaszewska, Krystyna Bochenek, Anna Gołaszewski, Janusz Kalaji, Hazem M. Sci Rep Article How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. Understanding agricultural ecosystem responses requires assessing the relative shift in climatic constraints on crop production at regional scales such as the temperate zone. In this work we propose an approach to modeling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf. under the climatic conditions of north-eastern Poland. The model implements 13 non-measurable parameters, including climate conditions, agronomic factors, physiological processes, biophysical parameters, yield components and biological yield (latent variables), which are described by 33 measurable predictors as well as grain and straw yield (manifest variables). The agronomic factors latent variable was correlated with nitrogen fertilization and sowing density, and biological yield was correlated with grain yield and straw yield. An analysis of the model parameters revealed that a one unit increase in agronomic factors increased biological yield by 0.575. In turn, biological yield was most effectively determined by climate conditions (score of 60–62) and biophysical parameters (score of 60–67) in the 2nd node detectable stage and at the end of heading. The modeled configuration of latent and manifest variables was responsible for less than 70% of potential biological yield, which indicates that the growth and development of durum wheat in north-eastern Europe can be further optimized to achieve high and stable yields. The proposed model accounts for local climate conditions and physiological processes in plants, and it can be implemented to optimize agronomic practices in the cultivation of durum wheat and, consequently, to expand the area under T. durum to regions with a temperate climate. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC8571285/ /pubmed/34741106 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01273-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Bożek, Kamila S.
Żuk-Gołaszewska, Krystyna
Bochenek, Anna
Gołaszewski, Janusz
Kalaji, Hazem M.
Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title_full Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title_fullStr Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title_short Modelling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern Europe
title_sort modelling the growth, development and yield of triticum durum desf under the changes of climatic conditions in north-eastern europe
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8571285/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34741106
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01273-8
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