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A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil

BACKGROUND: Country-specific evidence is needed to guide decisions regarding whether and how to implement lung cancer screening in different settings. For this study, we estimated the potential numbers of individuals screened and lung cancer deaths prevented in Brazil after applying different strate...

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Autores principales: Miranda-Filho, Adalberto, Charvat, Hadrien, Bray, Freddie, Migowski, Arn, Cheung, Li C., Vaccarella, Salvatore, Johansson, Mattias, Carvalho, Andre L., Robbins, Hilary A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8571533/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34765952
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101176
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author Miranda-Filho, Adalberto
Charvat, Hadrien
Bray, Freddie
Migowski, Arn
Cheung, Li C.
Vaccarella, Salvatore
Johansson, Mattias
Carvalho, Andre L.
Robbins, Hilary A.
author_facet Miranda-Filho, Adalberto
Charvat, Hadrien
Bray, Freddie
Migowski, Arn
Cheung, Li C.
Vaccarella, Salvatore
Johansson, Mattias
Carvalho, Andre L.
Robbins, Hilary A.
author_sort Miranda-Filho, Adalberto
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Country-specific evidence is needed to guide decisions regarding whether and how to implement lung cancer screening in different settings. For this study, we estimated the potential numbers of individuals screened and lung cancer deaths prevented in Brazil after applying different strategies to define screening eligibility. METHODS: We applied the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) to survey data on current and former smokers (ever-smokers) in 15 Brazilian state capital cities that comprise 18% of the Brazilian population. We evaluated three strategies to define eligibility for screening: (1) pack-years and cessation time (≥30 pack-years and <15 years since cessation); (2) the LCDRAT risk model with a fixed risk threshold; and (3) LCDRAT with age-specific risk thresholds. FINDINGS: Among 2.3 million Brazilian ever-smokers aged 55–79 years, 21,459 (95%CI 20,532–22,387) lung cancer deaths were predicted over 5 years without screening. Applying the fixed risk-based eligibility definition would prevent more lung cancer deaths than the pack-years definition [2,939 (95%CI 2751–3127) vs. 2,500 (95%CI 2318–2681) lung cancer deaths], and with higher screening efficiency [NNS=177 (95%CI 170–183) vs. 205 (95%CI 194–216)], but would tend to screen older individuals [mean age 67.8 (95%CI 67.5–68.2) vs. 63.4 (95%CI 63.0–63.9) years]. Applying age-specific risk thresholds would allow younger ever-smokers to be screened, although these individuals would be at lower risk. The age-specific thresholds strategy would avert three-fifths (60.1%) of preventable lung cancer deaths [N = 2629 (95%CI 2448–2810)] by screening 21.9% of ever-smokers. INTERPRETATION: The definition of eligibility impacts the efficiency of lung cancer screening and the mean age of the eligible population. As implementation of lung screening proceeds in different countries, our analytical framework can be used to guide similar analyses in other contexts. Due to limitations of our models, more research would be needed.
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spelling pubmed-85715332021-11-10 A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil Miranda-Filho, Adalberto Charvat, Hadrien Bray, Freddie Migowski, Arn Cheung, Li C. Vaccarella, Salvatore Johansson, Mattias Carvalho, Andre L. Robbins, Hilary A. EClinicalMedicine Research paper BACKGROUND: Country-specific evidence is needed to guide decisions regarding whether and how to implement lung cancer screening in different settings. For this study, we estimated the potential numbers of individuals screened and lung cancer deaths prevented in Brazil after applying different strategies to define screening eligibility. METHODS: We applied the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT) to survey data on current and former smokers (ever-smokers) in 15 Brazilian state capital cities that comprise 18% of the Brazilian population. We evaluated three strategies to define eligibility for screening: (1) pack-years and cessation time (≥30 pack-years and <15 years since cessation); (2) the LCDRAT risk model with a fixed risk threshold; and (3) LCDRAT with age-specific risk thresholds. FINDINGS: Among 2.3 million Brazilian ever-smokers aged 55–79 years, 21,459 (95%CI 20,532–22,387) lung cancer deaths were predicted over 5 years without screening. Applying the fixed risk-based eligibility definition would prevent more lung cancer deaths than the pack-years definition [2,939 (95%CI 2751–3127) vs. 2,500 (95%CI 2318–2681) lung cancer deaths], and with higher screening efficiency [NNS=177 (95%CI 170–183) vs. 205 (95%CI 194–216)], but would tend to screen older individuals [mean age 67.8 (95%CI 67.5–68.2) vs. 63.4 (95%CI 63.0–63.9) years]. Applying age-specific risk thresholds would allow younger ever-smokers to be screened, although these individuals would be at lower risk. The age-specific thresholds strategy would avert three-fifths (60.1%) of preventable lung cancer deaths [N = 2629 (95%CI 2448–2810)] by screening 21.9% of ever-smokers. INTERPRETATION: The definition of eligibility impacts the efficiency of lung cancer screening and the mean age of the eligible population. As implementation of lung screening proceeds in different countries, our analytical framework can be used to guide similar analyses in other contexts. Due to limitations of our models, more research would be needed. Elsevier 2021-11-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8571533/ /pubmed/34765952 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101176 Text en © 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/).
spellingShingle Research paper
Miranda-Filho, Adalberto
Charvat, Hadrien
Bray, Freddie
Migowski, Arn
Cheung, Li C.
Vaccarella, Salvatore
Johansson, Mattias
Carvalho, Andre L.
Robbins, Hilary A.
A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title_full A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title_fullStr A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title_short A modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in Brazil
title_sort modeling analysis to compare eligibility strategies for lung cancer screening in brazil
topic Research paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8571533/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34765952
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101176
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