Association of Clinicopathologic and Molecular Tumor Features With Recurrence in Resected Early-Stage Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor–Positive Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer

IMPORTANCE: The recently published ADAURA study has posed a significant dilemma for clinicians in selecting patients for adjuvant osimertinib. Risk factors for recurrence in early-stage epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)–positive non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) also remain undefined. OBJECTIVE: To determine clinicopathologic characteristics and recurrence patterns of resected early-stage EGFR-positive NSCLC, using wildtype EGFR as a comparator cohort, and identify features associated with recurrence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a cohort study including patients diagnosed with AJCC7 Stage IA to IIIA NSCLC between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2018, who underwent curative surgical procedures at a specialist cancer center in Singapore. The cutoff for data analysis was October 15, 2020. Patient demographic characteristics, treatment history, and survival data were collated. In exploratory analysis, whole-exome sequencing was performed in a subset of 86 patients. Data were analyzed from September 3, 2020, to June 6, 2021. EXPOSURES: Adjuvant treatment was administered per investigator’s discretion. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was 2-year disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: A total of 723 patients were included (389 patients with EGFR-positive NSCLC; 334 patients with wildtype EGFR NSCLC). There were 366 women (50.6%) and 357 men (49.4%), and the median (range) age was 64 (22-88) years. A total of 299 patients (41.4%) had stage IA NSCLC, 155 patients (21.4%) had stage IB NSCLC, 141 patients (19.5%) had stage II NSCLC, and 125 patients (17.3%) had stage IIIA NSCLC. Compared with patients with wildtype EGFR NSCLC, patients with EGFR-positive NSCLC were more likely to be women (106 women [31.7%] vs 251 women [64.5%]) and never smokers (121 never smokers [36.2%] vs 317 never smokers [81.5%]). At median (range) follow up of 46 (0-123) months, 299 patients (41.4%) had cancer recurrence. There was no statistically significant difference in 2-year DFS for EGFR-positive and wildtype EGFR NSCLC (70.2% [95% CI, 65.3%-74.5%] vs 67.6% [95% CI, 62.2%-72.4%]; P = .70), although patients with EGFR-positive NSCLC had significantly better 5-year overall survival (77.7% [95% CI, 72.4%-82.1%] vs 66.6% [95% CI, 60.5%-72.0%]; P = .004). Among patients with EGFR-positive NSCLC, 2-year DFS was 81.0% (95% CI, 74.0%-86.3%) for stage IA, 78.4% (95% CI, 68.2%-85.6%) for stage IB, 57.1% (95% CI, 43.7%-68.4%) for stage II, and 46.6% (95% CI, 34.7%-57.7%) for stage IIIA. Overall, 5-year DFS among patients with stage IB through IIIA was 37.2% (95% CI, 30.1%-44.3%). Sites of disease at recurrence were similar between EGFR-positive and wildtype EGFR NSCLC, with locoregional (64 patients [16.5%] vs 56 patients [16.8%]), lung (41 patients [10.5%] vs 40 patients [12.0%]), and intracranial (37 patients [9.5%] vs 22 patients [6.6%]) metastases being the most common. A risk estimation model incorporating genomic data and an individual patient nomogram using clinicopathologic features for stage I EGFR-positive NSCLC was developed to improve risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study found that recurrence rates were high in early-stage EGFR-positive NSCLC including stage IA, yet 37.2% of patients with stage IB through IIIA were cured without adjuvant osimertinib. Further studies are needed to elucidate individualized surveillance and adjuvant treatment strategies for early-stage EGFR-positive NSCLC.