Long-term risk of subsequent ipsilateral lesions after surgery with or without radiotherapy for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy (RT) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) reduces ipsilateral breast event rates in clinical trials. This study assessed the impact of DCIS treatment on a 20-year risk of ipsilateral DCIS (iDCIS) and ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (iIBC) in a population-based cohort. METHODS: The cohort comprised all women diagnosed with DCIS in the Netherlands during 1989–2004 with follow-up until 2017. Cumulative incidence of iDCIS and iIBC following BCS and BCS + RT were assessed. Associations of DCIS treatment with iDCIS and iIBC risk were estimated in multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: The 20-year cumulative incidence of any ipsilateral breast event was 30.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 28.9–32.6) after BCS compared to 18.2% (95% CI 16.3–20.3) following BCS + RT. Women treated with BCS compared to BCS + RT had higher risk of developing iDCIS and iIBC within 5 years after DCIS diagnosis (for iDCIS: hazard ratio (HR)(age < 50) 3.2 (95% CI 1.6–6.6); HR(age ≥ 50) 3.6 (95% CI 2.6–4.8) and for iIBC: HR(age<50) 2.1 (95% CI 1.4–3.2); HR(age ≥ 50) 4.3 (95% CI 3.0–6.0)). After 10 years, the risk of iDCIS and iIBC no longer differed for BCS versus BCS + RT (for iDCIS: HR(age < 50) 0.7 (95% CI 0.3–1.5); HR(age ≥ 50) 0.7 (95% CI 0.4–1.3) and for iIBC: HR(age < 50) 0.6 (95% CI 0.4–0.9); HR(age ≥ 50) 1.2 (95% CI 0.9–1.6)). CONCLUSION: RT is associated with lower iDCIS and iIBC risk up to 10 years after BCS, but this effect wanes thereafter.