Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective

What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages to assist researchers in battling of the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas, and spatial analysis is carried out using the Mora...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Arashi, Mohammad, Bekker, Andriette, Salehi, Mahdi, Millard, Sollie, Botha, Tanita, Golpaygani, Mohammad
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8576801/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34751879
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17291-y
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author Arashi, Mohammad
Bekker, Andriette
Salehi, Mahdi
Millard, Sollie
Botha, Tanita
Golpaygani, Mohammad
author_facet Arashi, Mohammad
Bekker, Andriette
Salehi, Mahdi
Millard, Sollie
Botha, Tanita
Golpaygani, Mohammad
author_sort Arashi, Mohammad
collection PubMed
description What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages to assist researchers in battling of the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas, and spatial analysis is carried out using the Moran index. For capturing spatial autocorrelation between the provinces of South Africa, the adjacent as well as the geographical distance measures are used as weight matrix for both absolute and relative counts. Furthermore, generalized logistic growth curve modelling is used for prediction of the COVID-19 spread. We expect this data-driven modelling to provide some insights into hotspot identification and timeous action controlling the spread of the virus.
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spelling pubmed-85768012021-11-09 Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective Arashi, Mohammad Bekker, Andriette Salehi, Mahdi Millard, Sollie Botha, Tanita Golpaygani, Mohammad Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Research Article What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages to assist researchers in battling of the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas, and spatial analysis is carried out using the Moran index. For capturing spatial autocorrelation between the provinces of South Africa, the adjacent as well as the geographical distance measures are used as weight matrix for both absolute and relative counts. Furthermore, generalized logistic growth curve modelling is used for prediction of the COVID-19 spread. We expect this data-driven modelling to provide some insights into hotspot identification and timeous action controlling the spread of the virus. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2021-11-09 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8576801/ /pubmed/34751879 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17291-y Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Arashi, Mohammad
Bekker, Andriette
Salehi, Mahdi
Millard, Sollie
Botha, Tanita
Golpaygani, Mohammad
Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title_full Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title_fullStr Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title_full_unstemmed Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title_short Evaluating prediction of COVID-19 at provincial level of South Africa: a statistical perspective
title_sort evaluating prediction of covid-19 at provincial level of south africa: a statistical perspective
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8576801/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34751879
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17291-y
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