Measuring the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on crime in a medium-sized city in China

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES: The study examines the variation in the daily incidence of eight acquisitive crimes: automobile theft, electromobile theft, motorcycle theft, bicycle theft, theft from automobiles, pickpocketing, residential burglary, and cyber-fraud before the lockdown and the duration of the lockdown for a medium-sized city in China. METHODS: Regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) models are used to test the effect of the lockdown measures on crime by examining the daily variation of raw counts and rate. RESULTS: It is indicated that in contrast to numerous violent crime categories such as domestic violence where findings have repeatedly found increases during the COVID-19 pandemic, acquisitive crimes in this city were reduced during the lockdown period for all categories, while “cyber-fraud” was found more resilient in the sense that its decrease was not as salient as for most other crime types, possibly due to people’s use of the internet during the lockdown period. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide further support to opportunity theories of crime that are contingent upon the need for a motivated offender to identify a suitable target in physical space.