A simple nomogram for early postoperative risk prediction of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy

PURPOSE: Postoperative pancreatic fistulae (POPF) present a serious and life-threatening complication after pancreatic head resections (PD). Therefore, reliable risk stratification to identify those at risk is urgently needed. The aim of this study was to identify postoperative laboratory parameters for the prediction of POPF in the early postoperative period. METHODS: One hundred eighty-two patients who underwent PD from 2012 until 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was performed using the GLM (general linear model) method for model building. Two nomograms were created based on the GLM models of postoperative day one and postoperative day one to five. A cohort of 48 patients operated between 2018 and 2019 served as internal validation. RESULTS: Clinically relevant pancreatic fistulae (CR-POPF) were present in 16% (n = 29) of patients. Patients with CR-POPF experienced significantly more insufficiencies of gastroenterostomies, delayed gastric emptying, and more extraluminal bleeding than patients without CR-POPF. Multivariate analysis revealed multiple postoperative predictive models, the best one including ASA, main pancreatic duct diameter, operation time, and serum lipase as well as leucocytes on day one. This model was able to predict CR-POPF with an accuracy of 90% and an AUC of 0.903. Two nomograms were created for easier use. CONCLUSION: Clinically relevant fistula can be predicted using simple laboratory and clinical parameters. Not serum amylase, but serum lipase is an independent predictor of CR-POPF. Our simple nomograms may help in the identification of patients for early postoperative interventions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-021-02184-y.