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A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care

BACKGROUND: The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determines for a...

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Autor principal: Gandjour, Afschin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8579517/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34753466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07217-2
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author Gandjour, Afschin
author_facet Gandjour, Afschin
author_sort Gandjour, Afschin
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determines for a preventive measure of interest whether savings from preventing morbidity are more than offset by the costs of living longer, resulting in a net expenditure increase. METHODS: A theoretical model was built based on a Weibull survival function. It includes savings and life extension costs over the remaining lifetime. The model was applied to the example of obesity prevention. RESULTS: The model shows that the cost consequences of prevention are essentially driven by two factors: i) the relative reduction of morbidity-related costs, which determines the amount of savings from avoiding morbidity; and ii) the hazard ratio of death, which determines the amount of life extension costs. In the application example, the model is able to validate the results of a more complex cost-effectiveness model on obesity prevention. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides new insight into the lifetime cost consequences of prevention. The model can be used both to check plausibility of the results of other models and to conduct an independent analysis.
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spelling pubmed-85795172021-11-10 A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care Gandjour, Afschin BMC Health Serv Res Research BACKGROUND: The effect of preventive health care on health expenditures is ambiguous. On the one hand, prevention reduces the costs of future morbidity. On the other hand, prevention leads to costs of life extension. The purpose of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model that determines for a preventive measure of interest whether savings from preventing morbidity are more than offset by the costs of living longer, resulting in a net expenditure increase. METHODS: A theoretical model was built based on a Weibull survival function. It includes savings and life extension costs over the remaining lifetime. The model was applied to the example of obesity prevention. RESULTS: The model shows that the cost consequences of prevention are essentially driven by two factors: i) the relative reduction of morbidity-related costs, which determines the amount of savings from avoiding morbidity; and ii) the hazard ratio of death, which determines the amount of life extension costs. In the application example, the model is able to validate the results of a more complex cost-effectiveness model on obesity prevention. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides new insight into the lifetime cost consequences of prevention. The model can be used both to check plausibility of the results of other models and to conduct an independent analysis. BioMed Central 2021-11-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8579517/ /pubmed/34753466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07217-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Gandjour, Afschin
A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_full A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_fullStr A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_full_unstemmed A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_short A parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
title_sort parsimonious model to validate cost-effectiveness analyses on preventive health care
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8579517/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34753466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07217-2
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