Predicting open wound mortality in the ICU using machine learning

BACKGROUND: Open wounds have a significant impact on the health of patients causing pain, loss of function, and death. Labeled as a comorbid condition, open wounds represent a “silent epidemic” that affect a large portion of the US population. Due to their burden of care, open wound patients face an increased risk of ICU stay and mortality. There is a dearth of studies that investigate mortality among wound patients in the ICU. We sought to develop a model that predicts the risk of mortality among wound patients in the ICU. METHODS: Random forest and binomial logistic regression models were developed to predict the risk of mortality among open wound patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. MIMIC-III includes de-identified data for patients who stayed in critical care units of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2001 and 2012. Six variables were used to develop the model (wound location, gender, age, admission type, minimum platelet count and hyperphosphatemia). The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index were used to assess model strength. RESULTS: A total of 3,937 patients were included with a mean age of 76.57. Of those, 3,372 (85%) survived and 565 (15%) died during their ICU stay. The random forest model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.924. The CCI and Elixhauser models resulted in AUC of 0.528 and 0.565, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models may allow clinicians to provide better care and management to open wound patients in the ICU.