Genomic Instability of Circulating Tumor DNA as a Prognostic Marker for Pancreatic Cancer Survival: A Prospective Cohort Study

SIMPLE SUMMARY: This prospective cohort study showed that circulating tumor DNA-genomic instability (ctDNA-GI) I-scores, which was defined as the natural logarithm of the sum of LOESS-normalized Z-scores of sequenced reads in 1 Mb bins, are prognostic of the outcome of either localized or metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. At baseline, 24.1% of patients had high genomic instability with I-score. Multivariable analyses demonstrated I-score was a significant factor for progression-free survival and overall survival. ABSTRACT: Genomic instability of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a prognostic biomarker has not been evaluated in pancreatic cancer. We investigated the role of the genomic instability index of ctDNA in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We prospectively enrolled 315 patients newly diagnosed with resectable (n = 110), locally advanced (n = 78), and metastatic (n = 127) PDAC from March 2015 through January 2020. Low-depth whole-genome cell-free DNA sequencing identified genome-wide copy number alterations using instability score (I-score) to reflect genome-wide instability. Plasma cell-free and matched tumor tissue DNA from 15 patients with resectable pancreatic cancer was sequenced to assess the concordance of chromosomal copy number alteration profiles. Associations of I-score with clinical factors or survival were assessed. Seventy-six patients had high genomic instability with I-score > 7.3 in pre-treatment ctDNA; proportions of high I-score were 5.5%, 5.1%, and 52% in resectable, locally advanced, and metastatic stages, respectively. Correlation coefficients between Z-scores of plasma and tissue DNA at segment resolution were high (r(2) = 0.82). Univariable analysis showed the association of I-score with progression-free survival in each stage. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that clinical stage-adjusted I-scores were significant factors for progression-free and overall survival. In these patients, ctDNA genomic I-scores provided prognostic information relevant to progression-free survival in each clinical stage.