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National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

In this paper, we investigate the influence of holidays and community mobility on the transmission rate and death count of COVID-19 in Brazil. We identify national holidays and hallmark holidays to assess their effect on disease reports of confirmed cases and deaths. First, we use a one-variate mode...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Aragão, Dunfrey Pires, dos Santos, Davi Henrique, Mondini, Adriano, Gonçalves, Luiz Marcos Garcia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8582864/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34770108
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182111595
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author Aragão, Dunfrey Pires
dos Santos, Davi Henrique
Mondini, Adriano
Gonçalves, Luiz Marcos Garcia
author_facet Aragão, Dunfrey Pires
dos Santos, Davi Henrique
Mondini, Adriano
Gonçalves, Luiz Marcos Garcia
author_sort Aragão, Dunfrey Pires
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we investigate the influence of holidays and community mobility on the transmission rate and death count of COVID-19 in Brazil. We identify national holidays and hallmark holidays to assess their effect on disease reports of confirmed cases and deaths. First, we use a one-variate model with the number of infected people as input data to forecast the number of deaths. This simple model is compared with a more robust deep learning multi-variate model that uses mobility and transmission rates ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) from a SEIRD model as input data. A principal components model of community mobility, generated by the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is added to improve the input features for the multi-variate model. The deep learning model architecture is an LSTM stacked layer combined with a dense layer to regress daily deaths caused by COVID-19. The multi-variate model incremented with engineered input features can enhance the forecast performance by up to 18.99% compared to the standard one-variate data-driven model.
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spelling pubmed-85828642021-11-12 National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil Aragão, Dunfrey Pires dos Santos, Davi Henrique Mondini, Adriano Gonçalves, Luiz Marcos Garcia Int J Environ Res Public Health Article In this paper, we investigate the influence of holidays and community mobility on the transmission rate and death count of COVID-19 in Brazil. We identify national holidays and hallmark holidays to assess their effect on disease reports of confirmed cases and deaths. First, we use a one-variate model with the number of infected people as input data to forecast the number of deaths. This simple model is compared with a more robust deep learning multi-variate model that uses mobility and transmission rates ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text]) from a SEIRD model as input data. A principal components model of community mobility, generated by the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is added to improve the input features for the multi-variate model. The deep learning model architecture is an LSTM stacked layer combined with a dense layer to regress daily deaths caused by COVID-19. The multi-variate model incremented with engineered input features can enhance the forecast performance by up to 18.99% compared to the standard one-variate data-driven model. MDPI 2021-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8582864/ /pubmed/34770108 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182111595 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Aragão, Dunfrey Pires
dos Santos, Davi Henrique
Mondini, Adriano
Gonçalves, Luiz Marcos Garcia
National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title_full National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title_fullStr National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title_short National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
title_sort national holidays and social mobility behaviors: alternatives for forecasting covid-19 deaths in brazil
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8582864/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34770108
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182111595
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