The quest for a unified theory on biomechanical palm risk assessment through theoretical analysis and observation

Several methodologies related to the biomechanical risk assessment and the uprooting and breaking potential of palms are reviewed and evaluated in this study. Also a simple mathematical model was designed, to simulate the results of critical wind speed predictions for a tall coconut palm by using classic beam theory and Brazier buckling. First, the review presents arguments that assess the applicability of some influential claims and tree and palm risk assessment methods that have been amply marketed in the last 20 years. Then, the analysis goes beyond the classical procedures and theories that have influenced the arboricultural industry and related press so far. And afterwards, rationale behind several postulated ideas are presented, that are hoped to be fruitful in the path towards a new biomechanical theory for the biomechanical risk assessment of palms. The postulated model envisages the palm stem as a viscoelastic and hollow cylinder that is not only prone to buckling, ovalization and kinking, but also fatigue, shear, splitting and crack propagation. This envisaging was also the main reason why simple Brazier buckling formulation was experimentally applied to simulate the breaking risk of a cocostem. This study also enables a better understanding of the wide range of factors that may influence the mechanical behaviour of trees and palms under (wind) loading.