Integrating expert knowledge for dementia risk prediction in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI): a study protocol

INTRODUCTION: To date, there is no broadly accepted dementia risk score for use in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), partly because there are few large datasets available for model development. When evidence is limited, the knowledge and experience of experts becomes more crucial for risk stratification and providing MCI patients with prognosis. Structured expert elicitation (SEE) includes formal methods to quantify experts’ beliefs and help experts to express their beliefs in a quantitative form, reducing biases in the process. This study proposes to (1) assess experts’ beliefs about important predictors for 3-year dementia risk in persons with MCI through SEE methodology and (2) to integrate expert knowledge and patient data to derive dementia risk scores in persons with MCI using a Bayesian approach. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will use a combination of SEE methodology, prospectively collected clinical data, and statistical modelling to derive a dementia risk score in persons with MCI. Clinical expert knowledge will be quantified using SEE methodology that involves the selection and training of the experts, administration of questionnaire for eliciting expert knowledge, discussion meetings and results aggregation. Patient data from the Prospective Registry for Persons with Memory Symptoms of the Cognitive Neurosciences Clinic at the University of Calgary; the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative; and the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center’s Uniform Data Set will be used for model training and validation. Bayesian Cox models will be used to incorporate patient data and elicited data to predict 3-year dementia risk. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a robust dementia risk score that incorporates clinician expert knowledge with patient data for accurate risk stratification, prognosis and management of dementia.