National Security Indicators Forecasting through the Pandemic

We consider the actual task of developing a mathematical apparatus for quick assessment of the political, social, and economic situation by analyzing the most significant security indicators, taking into account the impact of the pandemic. Therefore we have developed a model concept for predicting national security indicators based on systemic dynamics. Mathematical models created under this concept will consider national security indicators used in some countries’ documents (White Papers) and a set of factors describing the situation with the spread of Covid-19. We selected these factors on the basis of a systematic analysis of the most commonly used pandemic spread models. The concept will allow us to evaluate national stability and security at present with acceptable accuracy and make a short-term forecast. The models constitute causal complexes based on analyzing the relationship between national security indicators and external factors in previous periods. They also will help us to assess the impact of the pandemic on these indicators. With such complexes, we will build a system of differential and residual equations, which will allow us to forecast and analyze the dynamics of national security indicators in the pandemic. Using the concept we have built, it is also possible to develop a scenario approach that examines the hypothetical consequences of different scenarios under variable conditions. We illustrate the solution by Germany’s example, but we can adapt the model for other countries.