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Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8589207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34767602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536 |
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author | Sawczuk, Thomas Palczewska, Anna Jones, Ben |
author_facet | Sawczuk, Thomas Palczewska, Anna Jones, Ben |
author_sort | Sawczuk, Thomas |
collection | PubMed |
description | This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match’s zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8589207 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85892072021-11-13 Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league Sawczuk, Thomas Palczewska, Anna Jones, Ben PLoS One Research Article This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match’s zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league. Public Library of Science 2021-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8589207/ /pubmed/34767602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536 Text en © 2021 Sawczuk et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Sawczuk, Thomas Palczewska, Anna Jones, Ben Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title | Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title_full | Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title_fullStr | Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title_full_unstemmed | Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title_short | Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
title_sort | development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8589207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34767602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536 |
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