Cargando…

Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league

This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Sawczuk, Thomas, Palczewska, Anna, Jones, Ben
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8589207/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34767602
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536
_version_ 1784598649419857920
author Sawczuk, Thomas
Palczewska, Anna
Jones, Ben
author_facet Sawczuk, Thomas
Palczewska, Anna
Jones, Ben
author_sort Sawczuk, Thomas
collection PubMed
description This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match’s zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8589207
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-85892072021-11-13 Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league Sawczuk, Thomas Palczewska, Anna Jones, Ben PLoS One Research Article This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match’s zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league. Public Library of Science 2021-11-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8589207/ /pubmed/34767602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536 Text en © 2021 Sawczuk et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Sawczuk, Thomas
Palczewska, Anna
Jones, Ben
Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title_full Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title_fullStr Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title_full_unstemmed Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title_short Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
title_sort development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8589207/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34767602
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259536
work_keys_str_mv AT sawczukthomas developmentofanexpectedpossessionvaluemodeltoanalyseteamattackingperformancesinrugbyleague
AT palczewskaanna developmentofanexpectedpossessionvaluemodeltoanalyseteamattackingperformancesinrugbyleague
AT jonesben developmentofanexpectedpossessionvaluemodeltoanalyseteamattackingperformancesinrugbyleague