Personalized Atrophy Risk Mapping in Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PURPOSE: To develop and validate an automatic retinal pigment epithelial and outer retinal atrophy (RORA) progression prediction model for nonexudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) cases in optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. METHODS: Longitudinal OCT data from 129 eyes/119 patients with RORA was collected and separated into training and testing groups. RORA was automatically segmented in all scans and additionally manually annotated in the test scans. OCT-based features such as layers thicknesses, mean reflectivity, and a drusen height map served as an input to the deep neural network. Based on the baseline OCT scan or the previous visit OCT, en face RORA predictions were calculated for future patient visits. The performance was quantified over time with the means of Dice scores and square root area errors. RESULTS: The average Dice score for segmentations at baseline was 0.85. When predicting progression from baseline OCTs, the Dice scores ranged from 0.73 to 0.80 for total RORA area and from 0.46 to 0.72 for RORA growth region. The square root area error ranged from 0.13 mm to 0.33 mm. By providing continuous time output, the model enabled creation of a patient-specific atrophy risk map. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning method for RORA progression prediction, which provides continuous-time output. It was used to compute atrophy risk maps, which indicate time-to-RORA-conversion, a novel and clinically relevant way of representing disease progression. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Application of recent advances in artificial intelligence to predict patient-specific progression of atrophic AMD.