SARS-CoV-2 monitoring at three sewersheds of different scales and complexity demonstrates distinctive relationships between wastewater measurements and COVID-19 case data

Wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 presents a means of tracking COVID-19 community infection dynamics on a broader geographic scale. However, accounting for environmental and sample-processing losses may be necessary for wastewater measurements to readily inform our understanding of infection prevalence. Here, we present measurements of the SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 gene targets from weekly wastewater samples at three sites in Hamilton County, Ohio, during an increase and subsequent decline of COVID-19 infections. The concentration of N1 or N2 RNA in wastewater, measured over the course of six months, ranged from below the detection limit to over 10(4) gene copies/l, and correlated with case data at two wastewater treatment plants, but not at a sub-sewershed-level sampling site. We also evaluated the utility of a broader range of variables than has been reported consistently in previous work, in improving correlations of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations with case data. These include a spiked matrix recovery control (OC43), flow-normalization, and assessment of fecal loading using endogenous fecal markers (HF183, PMMoV, crAssphage). We found that adjusting for recovery, flow, and fecal indicators increased these correlations for samples from a larger sewershed (serving ~488,000 people) with greater industrial and stormwater inputs, but raw N1/N2 concentrations corresponded better with case data at a smaller, residential-oriented sewershed. Our results indicate that the optimal adjustment factors for correlating wastewater and clinical case data moving forward may not be generalizable to all sewersheds.