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Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission

India is one of the countries in the world which is badly affected by the COVID-19 second wave. Assembly election in four states and a union territory of India was taken place during March–May 2021 when the COVID-19 second wave was close to its peak and affected a huge number of people. We studied t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Manik, Souvik, Pal, Sabyasachi, Mandal, Manoj, Hazra, Mangal
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8590629/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34803221
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-07041-7
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author Manik, Souvik
Pal, Sabyasachi
Mandal, Manoj
Hazra, Mangal
author_facet Manik, Souvik
Pal, Sabyasachi
Mandal, Manoj
Hazra, Mangal
author_sort Manik, Souvik
collection PubMed
description India is one of the countries in the world which is badly affected by the COVID-19 second wave. Assembly election in four states and a union territory of India was taken place during March–May 2021 when the COVID-19 second wave was close to its peak and affected a huge number of people. We studied the impact of assembly election on the effective contact rate and the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 using different epidemiological models like SIR, SIRD, and SEIR. We also modeled the effective reproduction number for all election-bound states using different mathematical functions. We separately studied the case of all election-bound states and found all the states showed a distinct increase in the effective contact rate and the effective reproduction number during the election-bound time and just after that compared to pre-election time. States, where elections were conducted in single-phase, showed less increase in the effective contact rate and the reproduction number. The election commission imposed extra measures from the first week of April 2021 to restrict big campaign rallies, meetings, and different political activities. The effective contact rate and the reproduction number showed a trend to decrease for few states due to the imposition of the restrictions. We also compared the effective contact rate, and the effective reproduction number of all election-bound states and the rest of India and found all the parameters related to the spread of virus for election-bound states are distinctly high compared to the rest of India.
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spelling pubmed-85906292021-11-15 Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission Manik, Souvik Pal, Sabyasachi Mandal, Manoj Hazra, Mangal Nonlinear Dyn Original Paper India is one of the countries in the world which is badly affected by the COVID-19 second wave. Assembly election in four states and a union territory of India was taken place during March–May 2021 when the COVID-19 second wave was close to its peak and affected a huge number of people. We studied the impact of assembly election on the effective contact rate and the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 using different epidemiological models like SIR, SIRD, and SEIR. We also modeled the effective reproduction number for all election-bound states using different mathematical functions. We separately studied the case of all election-bound states and found all the states showed a distinct increase in the effective contact rate and the effective reproduction number during the election-bound time and just after that compared to pre-election time. States, where elections were conducted in single-phase, showed less increase in the effective contact rate and the reproduction number. The election commission imposed extra measures from the first week of April 2021 to restrict big campaign rallies, meetings, and different political activities. The effective contact rate and the reproduction number showed a trend to decrease for few states due to the imposition of the restrictions. We also compared the effective contact rate, and the effective reproduction number of all election-bound states and the rest of India and found all the parameters related to the spread of virus for election-bound states are distinctly high compared to the rest of India. Springer Netherlands 2021-11-14 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8590629/ /pubmed/34803221 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-07041-7 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Manik, Souvik
Pal, Sabyasachi
Mandal, Manoj
Hazra, Mangal
Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title_full Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title_fullStr Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title_full_unstemmed Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title_short Effect of 2021 assembly election in India on COVID-19 transmission
title_sort effect of 2021 assembly election in india on covid-19 transmission
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8590629/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34803221
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-07041-7
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