Cardiovascular outcomes after initiating GLP-1 receptor agonist or basal insulin for the routine treatment of type 2 diabetes: a region-wide retrospective study

AIM: We aimed to compare cardiovascular outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who initiated GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) or basal insulin (BI) under routine care. METHODS: We accessed the administrative claims database of the Veneto Region (Italy) to identify new users of GLP-1RA or BI in 2014–2018. Propensity score matching (PSM) was implemented to obtain two cohorts of patients with superimposable characteristics. The primary endpoint was the 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events (3P-MACE). Secondary endpoints included 3P-MACE components, hospitalization for heart failure, revascularizations, and adverse events. RESULTS: From a background population of 5,242,201 citizens, 330,193 were identified as having diabetes. PSM produced two very well matched cohorts of 4063 patients each, who initiated GLP-1RA or BI after an average of 2.5 other diabetes drug classes. Patients were 63-year-old and only 15% had a baseline history of cardiovascular disease. During a median follow-up of 24 months in the intention-to-treat analysis, 3P-MACE occurred less frequently in the GLP-1RA cohort (HR versus BI 0.59; 95% CI 0.50–0.71; p < 0.001). All secondary cardiovascular endpoints were also significantly in favor of GLP-1RA. Results were confirmed in the as-treated approach and in several stratified analyses. According to the E-value, confounding by unmeasured variables were unlikely to entirely explain between-group differences in cardiovascular outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T2D who initiated a GLP-1RA experienced far better cardiovascular outcomes than did matched patients who initiated a BI in the same healthcare system. These finding supports prioritization of GLP-1RA as the first injectable regimen for the management of T2D. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01414-3.