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Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study
Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease. In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the pot...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8597888/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34790985 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266139 |
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author | Matrajt, Laura Brown, Elizabeth R. Cohen, Myron S. Dimitrov, Dobromir Janes, Holly |
author_facet | Matrajt, Laura Brown, Elizabeth R. Cohen, Myron S. Dimitrov, Dobromir Janes, Holly |
author_sort | Matrajt, Laura |
collection | PubMed |
description | Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease. In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries with different demographic structure and current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium. We analyzed antiviral effects on reducing hospitalization and death, and potential antiviral effects on reducing transmission. For each country, we varied daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) and antiviral effect in reducing transmission (AVT). Irrespective of location and AVT, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic adult infections (≥20% DTIR) prevented the majority of COVID-19 deaths, and recruiting 6% of all adult symptomatic infections daily reduced mortality by a third in all countries. Furthermore, our model projected that targeting antiviral treatment to the oldest age group (65 years old and older, DTIR of 20%) can prevent over 47% of deaths. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment (as soon as possible after inception of infection) is needed to mitigate transmission, preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started 3 to 5 days after symptoms onset). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment: as the vaccination rate increases, antivirals have a larger relative impact on population transmission. These results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8597888 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-85978882021-11-18 Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study Matrajt, Laura Brown, Elizabeth R. Cohen, Myron S. Dimitrov, Dobromir Janes, Holly medRxiv Article Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease. In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries with different demographic structure and current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium. We analyzed antiviral effects on reducing hospitalization and death, and potential antiviral effects on reducing transmission. For each country, we varied daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) and antiviral effect in reducing transmission (AVT). Irrespective of location and AVT, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic adult infections (≥20% DTIR) prevented the majority of COVID-19 deaths, and recruiting 6% of all adult symptomatic infections daily reduced mortality by a third in all countries. Furthermore, our model projected that targeting antiviral treatment to the oldest age group (65 years old and older, DTIR of 20%) can prevent over 47% of deaths. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment (as soon as possible after inception of infection) is needed to mitigate transmission, preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started 3 to 5 days after symptoms onset). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment: as the vaccination rate increases, antivirals have a larger relative impact on population transmission. These results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2022-04-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8597888/ /pubmed/34790985 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266139 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) , which allows reusers to copy and distribute the material in any medium or format in unadapted form only, for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator. |
spellingShingle | Article Matrajt, Laura Brown, Elizabeth R. Cohen, Myron S. Dimitrov, Dobromir Janes, Holly Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title | Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title_full | Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title_fullStr | Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title_full_unstemmed | Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title_short | Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study |
title_sort | could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the covid-19 pandemic? a modeling study |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8597888/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34790985 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266139 |
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