The Clinical Values of Afamin, Triglyceride and PLR in Predicting Risk of Gestational Diabetes During Early Pregnancy

OBJECTIVE: To establish a model to predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the clinical characteristics, early pregnancy (10-12 weeks gestation) peripheral blood routine, and biochemical indicators, and to explore its predictive efficiencies. METHODS: Data from 607 pregnant women with GDM were compared to the data from 833 pregnant women without GDM admitted to the Obstetrics Department of Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital (affiliated to Fujian Medical University) from May 2018 to December 2018 were retrospectively included. The ages of the pregnant women, paternal ages, number of pregnancies, number of deliveries, pre-pregnancy heights/weights, and the calculated body mass indexes (BMI) were recorded. In all participants, 10-12 weeks of pregnancy, afamin concentration, routine blood work, prenatal aneuploidy screening, and biochemical testing were performed. At weeks 24-28 of gestation, patients underwent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) for GDM screening. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that maternal age, early pregnancy afamin level, triglycerides, and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent risk factors for gestational diabetes. The formula for predicting GDM probability was as follows: P = 1/1 + exp( − 6.054 + 0.774 × triglycerides + 0.002 × afamin + 0.155 × age − 0.012 × PLR)]. From the established ROC curve, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.748, indicating that the model has a good degree of discrimination. When the predictive probability cut-off value was set on 0.358, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 69.2%, 68.3%, 42.5%, and 86.2%, respectively, and the accuracy rate was 70.2%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed that the goodness of the model fit has a good calibration ability (χ2 = 12.269, df=8, P=0.140). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal age, early pregnancy afamin level, triglycerides, and PLR are independent risk factors for gestational diabetes. When combined, the above indicators are helpful for prediction, early diagnosis, and intervention of gestational diabetes.