Using Novel Statistical Techniques to Accurately Determine the Predictive Dose Range in a Study of Overall Survival after Definitive Radiotherapy for Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in Association with Heart Dose

PURPOSE: Recent studies of radiotherapy (RT) for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have associated high dose to the heart with cardiac toxicity and decreased overall survival (OS). We used advanced statistical techniques to account for correlations between dosimetric variables and more accurately determine the range of heart doses which are associated with reduced OS in patients receiving RT for stage III NSCLC. METHODS: From 2006 to 2013, 119 patients with stage III NSCLC received definitive RT at our institution. OS data was obtained from institutional tumor registry. We used multivariate Cox model to determine patient specific covariates predictive for reduced overall survival. We examined age, prescription dose, mean lung dose, lung V20, RT technique, stage, chemotherapy, tumor laterality, tumor volume, and tumor site as candidate covariates. We subsequently used novel statistical techniques within multivariate Cox model to systematically search the whole heart dose-volume histogram (DVH) for dose parameters associated with OS. RESULTS: Patients were followed until death or 2.5 to 81.2 months (median 30.4 months) in those alive at last follow up. On multivariate analysis of whole heart DVH, the dose of 51 Gy was identified as a threshold dose above which the dose volume relationship becomes predictive for OS. We identified V55Gy (percentage of the whole heart volume receiving at least 55 Gy) as the best single DVH index which can be used to set treatment optimization constraints (Hazard Ratio = 1.044 per 1% increase in heart volume exposed to at least 55 Gy, P = 0.03). Additional characteristics correlated with OS on multivariate analysis were age, stage (IIIA/IIIB), and administration of chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Doses above 51 Gy, applied to small volumes of the heart, are associated with worse OS in stage III NSCLC patients treated with definitive RT. Higher stage, older age and lack of chemotherapy were also associated with reduced OS.